China : The Dragon with an Attitude

It is one of the oldest civilizations in the world. Its borders are constant for over 7000 years. It is the source of culture and language to Japan and Korea. It’s survival through time can be said to be a topic of envy. Strategists identify it as Clever and Patient. We can hardly find China committing troops to the missions of the UN; or even find it interfering in politics which is beyond its context. China does not seem to be interested in any military adventures, but is constantly, aggressively seeking economic opportunities and building defense. As US more often than not, gets caught in political and war deadlocks; China persistently builds a robust economy and a military power to be feared. The conservation of it’s energy in politics, military and economy results in helping it to dictate it’s development at the rate it wants, since the rate of development should be so managed that it can be maintained; e.g. a bridge can collapse under of it’s own weight. As the US is stuck in the middle-east crisis, China invests in Africa, its interest lies in it’s natural resources to feed it’s industries. China is busy looking for Oil in South and Latin America, West-Indies and the Middle-east, though it still has enough. In the process it is cementing its economy and building political allies. It’s progress seems to be very well planned. It’s exports grew by 39% last year. It has a robust Infrastructure and a very cheap workforce, ideal for manufacturers. Like the Indians, China has a huge turn-out of professionals and researchers in various fields. The no of patents to it’s name is astounding. The US meanwhile builds relations with Australia, India, Japan, Taiwan(recognized by only a few countries, thanks to China) to tackle China’s rise; but to it’s utter despair, it is too tangled in it’s own making to tackle China. China on the contrary has been bribing foreign diplomats to influence proceedings abroad. Though China has its own problems, one can still count on it’s experience. The Dragon talks slow but thinks fast.

India : A Resurgence unlimited

As the economy of India grows at a very adorable rate, so has the buying power of the Indians. The Return on Investments in such a market can be huge even if one holds a very small fraction of the market(considering it’s population). The potential of such a young and robust market is almost endless. The market is widely spread and the opportunities are almost homogeneous. The big cities provide a much more competitive market but is heavily competitive. Thus the competition spills to the smaller towns, and cities and finally to the villages; It easily proves to be the most generous markets of all; providing opportunity, to both the small and the big players. The basis of such a rise is the competitive nature of the Indian education structure. As the average Indian believes, education as the best of all remedies, India steadily emerged with a young but technically mature workforce. The results have been almost exponential. Indian workforce is recognized as the most talented and efficient, both in India and abroad; Indians gather wealth and spread it to relatives and friends (They in turn use it for education and business); Indian companies emerge strongly with the better buying power of the home crowd, and a talented and cheaper workforce; Indian companies become an Outsourcing phenomenon; Indian companies start acquisitions in foreign markets and gain more playing area; Meanwhile the government(Easily the weakest link) swells its revenue and FDIs; It then Invests in education, infrastructure and health; And the dream run continues. But the dream can have possible ends; India has to be consistent in keeping it’s focus on education(Both the Govt and individuals); Politics have to do away with corruption, India also should become efficient, aggressive and proactive in World Politics; and finally India needs to fear, respect, learn and then tackle China(as it grows flamboyantly to topple the US). But India has serious residual problems, like Infrastructure, Health and the poor. But the move is on and it knows.

The US favor

A sudden shift in US policies seems to remove the possibilities of a war against Iran. Everything seems to have been dialed down. There is no talk about the nuclear issue. No blaming each other. And US wants to have talks with Iran on the Iraq issue . It is highly unlikely that this is Mr Bush’s idea(he never used to think other than nonsense); it seems a result of pressure from the opposition and the intellectuals at home. While Dick Cheney was busy proclaiming Iran as an “Axis of Evil” in his visits to Australia and Pakistan; Condoleezza Rice was busy planning a meeting with Iran in the first half of April. The meeting is to discuss possible solutions to the situation in Iraq. Iran must have whewed a sigh of relief; no war as of now. As the US has its military stretched, a weaker economy and a dwindling political support which is evident as it is loosing support at home and from coalition forces who refuse to take any more risks; US hardly can take up another war and sleep peacefully. The wars are already proving futile; moreover democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq is far from true until the violence stops; Which seems quite unlikely for sometime. Iran however is enjoying a freedom and a sense of relief. Ironically the savior is none other than the US. US removed Taliban and the regime of Saddam Hussain both of which were counter-balance of power to Iran’s. This freedom has allowed Iran to develop itself and expand more control over the middle-east. Now, infact Iran enjoys a far more powerful diplomatic ability in the middle-east than the US. US will find it hard without Iran; it has infact become a necessary evil to solve the ME crisis. Recently Iran had talks with Saudi Arabia to curb violence between Sunnis and Shiites. Both of these nations are leading representatives of Shia and Sunni Islamic fragments. US hardly have any choice but allow a gradual slippage of it’s power to Iran, unless Bush has other thoughts. Infact US should worry more about China. Selling weapons to Taiwan won’t work anymore.

Phase of Provocation by US to say “Iran pinched me first!”

As US prepares for another battle against an enemy reluctant to fight, it wants to set the legalities of the war straight. Iran is close to loosing patience, and US is ready to say-you pinched me, I am gonna pinch you harder. US must be the most war fanatic nation. It seems to have featured in almost all wars except for The War of Kurukshetra and The Trojan War. Unfortunately for US, it did not exist at that point in time. Currently it rejects to talk with Iran officials until it stops uranium enrichment and they talk of solving the crisis through diplomacy. The US have been planning this war since one year under the direction of the president. They are very desperate infact. Their prerequisites for the war have been changing inside weeks. The cumulative reasons are as follows: if the existence of a nuclear bomb is confirmed; if Iran does not stop uranium enrichment; or if they find proof of Iran’s support to militants operating in Iraq. They talk of countries signing NPT then why did they overlook Israel when they do have nuclear warheads and Iran on the other hand have signed it and they do not have any! The US commitment to the NPT itself is questionable. The US has failed to disarm its nuclear warheads and has also shared information with UK regarding nuclear weapons. The NPT which is designed to disarm nuclear nations and restrict non-nuclear countries from making any seems almost a joke. While US remains the first and only one to use the bomb, it also is the country to cause highest civilian casualties, directly or indirectly. Recently US, Russia and China rejected to sign no-use of cluster bombs agreement while 66 other nations agreed to sign (A cluster bomb is a large scale destructive conventional bomb. The fragments of which when donot explode act as mines for years to come. The agreement makes the users to clean up the mess and expects no-use of the weapon.) As Iraq bleeds, Saddam’s rule seems a golden era and blame the tons of bombs used over the past five years in ME for the climate changes.

Russia : The Middle-East Sales-Man

Russia’s ambition in the middle-east is to reduce dependency of the region on the US by being able to act as a mediator between the countries; to gain contracts to build refineries, nuclear reactors and infrastructure and to sell conventional weapons, and defense systems to the region. Russia has failed miserably in keeping US out of the Middle-East as it did not have any coherent foreign policy for the countries. Russia currently suffers with a weak economy, corruption and political imbalance. The Cold war has left Russia with most of its resources distributed among countries that once were part of it and, to make matters worse these countries hate Russian imperialism.

Russia’s image in the middle-east can be seen as more of a sales-man than a diplomat. Russia have notable interests in Iraq, Iran, Israel, Turkey and also in the Palestinians. Israel have been one of the largest arms customer, but as relations dipped because of its confused foreign policy, the US entry was imminent. Currently Russia have good relations with Iran and the Palestinian Hamas lead government. It had good relations with Iraq, which of-course the US foiled it. One must note that the Russians did not support sanctions against Iraq. Firstly because it is a customer to Russia for arms and contracts and secondly, because if sanctions are imposed, Iraq will find it hard to pay Russia what is due. Billions of dollars was lost when US attacked Iraq. Russia was hurt and obviously may see a similar loss in Iran. Russia’s nuclear and arms deal with Iran is something US sees as another chance. Russia recently equipped Iran with a missile defense which can destroy incoming cruise missiles. Russia says Iran has the right to have it. It also says that US will not be hurt unless it attacks. But Russians are careful not to help Iran to make the bomb, its a question of security for itself. The Bush Administration is not stupid to overlook this? On the other hand Iranians are scratching their heads- why US is being so rude and not willing to listen?

Iran : Key to Middle-East Stability

The recent build up of US navy in the middle-east is a cause of concern, as it contradicts their approach to a peace progress solely through diplomatic dialogue between the two countries. The build up have been attributed by the US as a boost up in security for the stability of the region; which we should severely doubt. It is a pity that US fails to see a potential alliance with Iran, which is the final Islamic political and military power in the ME which can be a key to solve the ME peace crisis. The sincerity of the US stance on the region has become questionable. What are they doing in Afghanistan now, when 50% of it is being re-taken by Taliban and Al-Qaeda? Iran have already voiced this concern.Why did US support Israel’s attack on Lebanon without any complications? While US is following old instincts and unwilling to learn, another cold war seems to have already begun between the US and Russia. As the US sees Israel as a fitting Ally in the ME region, the Russians are busy helping Iran build its nuclear plant and providing nuclear fuel to feed Iran’s power plants. The sight is ofcourse disturbing for the US. Unable to see Russia right in the eye, US tries to find a culprit in Iran-“an axis of evil” as Mr Bush states. It is the same Iran that helped US to destroy Taliban and Al-Qaeda. US is speculative of Iran’s intentions even though IAEA officials find nothing to suspect. Iran lacks enough centrifuges to build a nuclear bomb. Iran also vows to limit uranium refining to 4-8% for making nuclear fuel for its power plants, much below the 80% threshold for building a bomb. The US aggression is only making it reasonable for the Iranians to have a bomb. The US like the Russians have helped eastern European countries of Poland and Czech Republic to have missile defense systems, much to Russia’s dismay. Finally it seems, there is nothing to do with the bomb; just small countries caught in the cross-fire between the big guns. Lastly, Iran remains the last hope for ME stability and not US.

Compounding Interest of the US in the Middle-East : Just not an act against terror.

(This was written earlier this year; in view of US starting to take aggressive stance against Iran)

The activities of the US in the middle-east have changed suddenly from acting just as a watchdog to a more proactive and sensitive nation which is willing to make mistakes to make things happen. Frustration seems to have clearly crept into the Bush Administration. Frustration became evident and got sufficient impetus after the September 11 attacks on their commercial capital and their defense headquarters. But we might be getting carried away if we think that a country of such a stature is actually preparing to leave its pedestal of rationalism. It is after all has been a one man show. The tag of the US has been used efficiently enough for the good of his oil group and his defense manufacturers. US invests more in defense like never before. There has been widespread tag-lines against the US administration by the home crowd regarding recent developments in the ME region and the defense budget, leaving little for domestic expenses. All because of the righteousness of one, Mr Bush. Who else?! Feeding his Carlysle group with vast oil reserves and feeding the army deployments in ME with arms and tanks, he thanks the US and the world for the support. No wonder he is in high spirits after the recent bill being passed on higher allocation of defense budget. There has been many instances where his assurances of a country’s preparation to become a rogue state has been found baseless. Guess he was the only US president who was booed when he was elected for office. He talks of bringing back US troops home and then speaks of security lapses and re-deploys them. He is too clever and the World suffers in support to him. Our only hope for peace hinges on the fact that his greed will be satisfied before the world has something to save. Amen.